Executive Summary
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) continues to be the most feared operator in retail. In fiscal year 2025 (ending August 2025), the company posted $269.9 billion in net sales — up 8.1% year-over-year — with net income of $8.1 billion [s1]. The membership flywheel remains intact: 81 million paid members, a 92.3% renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada, and membership fee income of $5.3 billion [s2]. Costco now operates 914 warehouses globally and plans to open 28–35 more in fiscal 2026 [s3][s17]. Kirkland Signature generated approximately $90 billion in revenue in 2025 — surpassing Procter & Gamble — and digitally-enabled comparable sales surged 34.4% in January 2026 [s4][s18][s19]. Costco is also filing tariff lawsuits, expanding same-day delivery into Europe, and launching a Nike SB Dunk collaboration. The hot dog still costs $1.50.
The Hot Dog Index
The $1.50 hot-dog-and-soda combo has not changed in price since 1984. Adjusted for inflation, it should cost roughly $4.40 today. That it doesn't is not an oversight — it is Costco's most visible commitment to value [s6].
The origin story is now retail legend. When CEO Craig Jelinek told co-founder Jim Sinegal in 2013 that the company was "losing our rear ends" on the combo and proposed raising the price to $1.75, Sinegal reportedly replied: "If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out." Jelinek figured it out — switching soda suppliers from Coca-Cola to Pepsi, and in 2008, bringing hot dog production in-house through Costco's own Kirkland Signature manufacturing facilities [s7].
Costco sells approximately 200 million hot-dog-and-soda combos per year. The food court operates as a deliberate loss leader: it drives foot traffic, reinforces the value proposition, and creates the kind of brand loyalty that no amount of advertising can buy. The hot dog is not a menu item. It is a strategic asset [s6][s7].
Membership & Unit Economics
Costco's business model is fundamentally a membership business that happens to sell products. In fiscal 2025, membership fee income reached $5.3 billion — up 10.3% year-over-year — and accounts for roughly two-thirds of operating profit. The company operates on razor-thin product margins (typically 11-12% gross margin) and uses membership fees to fund the difference [s1][s2].
Fee Structure
In September 2024, Costco implemented its first membership fee increase in seven years. The Gold Star (individual) membership rose from $60 to $65, and the Executive membership from $120 to $130. This impacted approximately 52 million memberships, roughly half of which are Executive members who earn a 2% annual reward on qualified purchases [s8].
Renewal Rates & Member Growth
U.S. and Canada renewal rates held at 92.3%, with worldwide rates at 89.8%. Total paid members grew 6.3% to 81 million. Management noted a slight dip in renewal rates among digitally-acquired members — those signing up through promotional campaigns such as a large Groupon initiative — who tend to be younger and renew at modestly lower rates. This is worth monitoring but not yet alarming [s2][s9].
In Q1 FY2026, membership fee income surged 14% to $1.329 billion, reflecting the full impact of the September 2024 fee increase plus continued membership growth and Executive upgrades [s10]. Monthly sales data confirms durable momentum: December 2025 net sales reached $29.86 billion (+8.5% YoY) with comparable sales up 7.0%, and January 2026 net sales hit $21.33 billion (+9.3% YoY) with comparable sales up 7.1% [s20][s19]. Q2 FY2026 earnings are expected on March 5, 2026 [s21].
Kirkland Brand Empire
Kirkland Signature is the most successful private label in retail history. Launched in 1995, it now accounts for roughly a third of Costco's total revenue — approximately $90 billion in 2025, up from $86 billion the prior year. To put that in perspective: Kirkland Signature alone generates more revenue than Lowe's, Procter & Gamble, or Nike [s4][s18].
The strategic philosophy is distinctive. While most retailers use private labels primarily as margin enhancers, Costco requires every Kirkland product to be equal to or better than the category leader while offering 20% or greater savings. Many products are manufactured by the same factories that produce national brands — the same vodka distillery, the same olive oil presses. Costco's product development teams sometimes spend years perfecting formulations before launch [s4][s11].
Kirkland brand penetration reached approximately 33% in fiscal 2025, with Kirkland sales outperforming overall sales growth. Margins on Kirkland products run roughly 15% — nearly double the margins on national brands. Management has identified non-food categories (apparel, household goods, pet products) as the largest growth opportunity for the brand. In Q1 FY2026, Costco launched 45 new Kirkland Signature items [s11][s22].
The Kirkland x Nike SB Dunk
In January 2026, Costco dropped the Kirkland Signature x Nike SB Dunk Low at eight warehouse locations for $134.99. The shoe features grey fleece uppers (a nod to Costco sweatshirts), a $1.50 hot-dog graphic hidden under the Zoom Air cushioning, and a tongue tag designed after Costco price labels. It sold out immediately, with resale prices hitting $400–$1,000 within three days — a 200%+ markup. The collaboration is emblematic of Kirkland's cultural resonance beyond the warehouse aisle [s23].
Kirkland Risks: Rotisserie Chicken Lawsuit
In January 2026, a class-action lawsuit alleged Costco falsely advertised its Kirkland Seasoned Rotisserie Chicken as containing "no preservatives," citing the use of sodium phosphate and carrageenan. Costco responded by removing all preservative-related claims from signage and online descriptions. The $4.99 rotisserie chicken — a loss leader that sells over 100 million units annually — now faces a separate salmonella-related lawsuit targeting a Nebraska processing plant [s24].
Warehouse Expansion
Costco operates 914 warehouses across 14 countries: 629 in the United States, 110 in Canada, 42 in Mexico, 37 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 20 in South Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, 7 in China, 5 in Spain, 2 in France, 2 in Sweden, and 1 each in Iceland and New Zealand [s1].
In fiscal 2025, the company opened 24 net-new warehouses (27 total openings, 3 relocations). For fiscal 2026, Costco initially announced plans for 35 new locations (30 net-new after 5 relocations), though some reports now cite 28 confirmed U.S. and international openings after construction delays in Spain. Confirmed early-2026 openings include West Roseville, CA (January), Liberty Hill, TX, and Forney, TX (both March). The expansion is part of a broader $6.5 billion growth strategy, with plans for 30+ openings per year for the foreseeable future [s3][s17].
International Growth
China remains the most watched international market. Costco currently operates 7 warehouses in mainland China, with a pipeline of additional openings. The Monterrey, Mexico location planned for 2026 will be the largest Costco warehouse in Latin America at over 200,000 square feet. South Korea and Japan continue to be high-performing international markets with strong membership renewal rates [s3][s12].
Store Upgrades & Checkout Innovation
Existing locations are undergoing renovations to add gas stations, expand parking, and deploy prescan checkout technology that management claims can increase checkout speeds by up to 20%. Self-serve food court kiosks requiring membership card scans are expanding to more locations, restricting food court access to verified members only [s17].
E-Commerce & Delivery
Costco's e-commerce business has shifted from afterthought to genuine growth engine. In Q1 FY2026, digitally-enabled comparable sales grew 20.5%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit digital gains. Website traffic increased 24% and app traffic surged 48% year-over-year. The acceleration is intensifying: December 2025 digital comparable sales hit 18.9%, and January 2026 surged to 34.4% — the strongest month on record [s5][s20][s19].
Delivery & Logistics
Costco Logistics deliveries grew 31% year-over-year, driven by the "big and bulky" category — furniture, appliances, and exercise equipment delivered directly by Costco's own last-mile network. Same-day delivery partnerships with Instacart (U.S.), Uber Eats, and DoorDash (international) continue to expand. The introduction of Buy Now, Pay Later through Affirm is targeting conversion improvements on high-ticket items [s5][s13].
Instacart Europe Launch
On January 30, 2026, Costco and Instacart expanded their North American partnership into Europe, launching same-day delivery websites in France (sameday.costco.fr) and Spain (sameday.costco.es). The rollout covers all Costco locations in both countries — Paris, Mulhouse, Bilbao, Madrid, Seville, and Zaragoza — using Instacart's Storefront Pro platform with local fulfillment partners. Members receive same-as-in-store pricing with a flat service fee per order. This marks Costco's first powered e-commerce presence in continental Europe [s25].
Digital Initiatives
New personalization capabilities provide members with product recommendations based on search history. Passwordless sign-in was rolled out across digital platforms. Costco is also enabling mobile app ordering for custom cakes and deli trays — a change driven by customer feedback that management says is seeing "great adoption right out of the chute," with broader expansion planned through 2026. The company is cautiously entering the retail media space, working with approximately 10 brand partners on digital advertising campaigns — a revenue stream that could eventually become material as the retail media market is projected to reach $100 billion by 2028 [s12][s14][s17].
Financial Performance
Fiscal Year 2025 (Full Year, Ended August 2025)
Net sales: $269.9 billion (+8.1% YoY). Net income: $8.099 billion ($18.21 per diluted share), up from $7.367 billion ($16.56 per diluted share) in fiscal 2024. Membership fee income: $5.3 billion (+10.3%). Total paid members: 81 million (+6.3%) [s1].
Q1 FY2026 (Ended November 23, 2025)
Net sales: $65.98 billion (+8.2% YoY). Operating income: $2.46 billion (up from $2.20 billion). EPS: $4.50 (up from $4.04). Comparable sales: +6.4% total (+5.9% U.S., +6.5% Canada, +8.8% International). Membership fee income: $1.329 billion (+14%). Digitally-enabled comparable sales: +20.5% [s10].
Monthly Sales Momentum
December 2025 net sales: $29.86 billion (+8.5% YoY). Comparable sales: +7.0% (+6.0% U.S., +8.4% Canada, +10.6% International). Digitally-enabled comparable sales: +18.9% [s20]. January 2026 net sales: $21.33 billion (+9.3% YoY). Comparable sales: +7.1% (+5.8% U.S., +11.4% Canada, +9.5% International). Digitally-enabled comparable sales: +34.4%. Note: Lunar New Year timing negatively impacted January International and Total Company sales by approximately 4.0% and 0.5%, respectively [s19]. Year-to-date FY2026 sales (first 18 weeks): $101.83 billion (+8.3% YoY). Q2 FY2026 earnings expected March 5, 2026 [s21].
Valuation Note
At a market capitalization of approximately $452 billion (as of mid-February 2026), Costco trades at 54.6x trailing earnings and 49.2x forward earnings, with the stock at approximately $1,018 per share. Analyst consensus EPS forecasts project $20.03 for FY2026 and $22.09 for FY2027. Morningstar's fair value estimate is $945, implying a 45% premium. Whether this premium is justified depends on one's view of how much growth remains — but the market is clearly pricing in durable compounding from the membership flywheel, Kirkland expansion, and international growth runway [s14][s26].
Strategic Moves & Threats
Gold Bars: The Unlikely Category Killer
Costco has become a major retail seller of gold bars and silver coins. With gold prices now surpassing $5,000/oz in February 2026 (up 74% YoY), Costco's bullion sales remain an estimated $200 million per month. The company sells 1-ounce, 24-karat bars from PAMP Suisse and Rand Refinery at premiums of just 1–2% over spot — undercutting many dealers' 1–10% markups. Shoppers may purchase up to two bars per transaction, limited to one transaction every 24 hours. The bars typically sell out within hours of restocking [s15][s27].
Competitive Landscape
The three retail titans — Walmart ($568.7B U.S. retail sales), Amazon ($273.7B), and Costco ($183.1B) — collectively captured 46% of all U.S. retail growth in 2024. Amazon leads in e-commerce growth (24% of new growth), while Walmart leverages its 4,700 U.S. stores as fulfillment nodes with e-commerce up 27%. Costco's 9.8% share of retail growth is impressive given its smaller footprint and club-only model [s16].
Key Threats to Monitor
Tariff exposure has escalated from concern to active legal battle. In November 2025, Costco sued the Trump administration in the Court of International Trade, arguing that emergency tariffs imposed under IEEPA are unlawful and seeking a full refund of duties paid. Costco is among over 100 companies challenging the tariffs. Tactically, the company is pulling forward inventory purchases, rerouting sourcing away from high-tariff countries, expanding Kirkland Signature local sourcing, and selectively absorbing tariff costs on staple items like bananas while passing through costs on non-essentials like flowers [s28][s29].
Employee Investment
Costco will implement hourly wage increases of $0.50–$1.00 in March 2026, with additional vacation hours and clearer advancement paths for top-scale employees. Employee retention and satisfaction remain key competitive advantages — Costco's employee turnover rate is roughly one-third of the retail industry average [s17].
Other Threats to Monitor
The slight decline in renewal rates among digitally-acquired younger members bears watching — if this cohort doesn't convert to long-term loyalty, the promotional acquisition channel becomes expensive. International expansion in China faces geopolitical and regulatory complexity. And while Walmart and Amazon continue to invest billions in logistics infrastructure, Costco's e-commerce operation, while growing fast, is still a fraction of competitors' scale [s12][s14][s16].
References
- Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Operating Results — Costco Investor Relations, September 2025
- Costco Shares Key News on Membership and Renewal Rates — TheStreet, 2025
- Costco Plans to Open 35 New Warehouse Stores by August 2026 — Retail TouchPoints, 2025
- Costco's Not-So-Secret Weapon: How Kirkland Signature Is Driving Growth and Profits — CNBC, March 2025
- Costco Ecommerce Sales Growth Tops 20% in Q1 — Digital Commerce 360, 2025
- Costco Hot Dogs Have Cost $1.50 Since the 1980s. Here's Why Prices Aren't Changing — NPR, June 2024
- Why Costco's Hot Dog Is Still $1.50 When Everything Has Gotten So Expensive — CNN Business, 2024
- Costco's First Membership Price Hike in 7 Years Goes Into Effect — CNN Business, September 2024
- Costco's Membership Fees Rise 14%: Sustainable Growth or Peak? — Yahoo Finance, 2025
- Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Operating Results — Costco Investor Relations, December 2025
- How Costco Turned Kirkland Signature Into an $86 Billion Brand — AInvest, 2025
- Costco's 2025: 3 Things Investors Should Know Heading Into the New Year — Motley Fool, December 2025
- How Costco's 'Big and Bulky' Boom Changed the Game in Retail Shopping — CNBC, September 2025
- Costco's E-Commerce Sales Surge: A Dark Horse Growth Engine? — Nasdaq, 2025
- Costco's Gold Bars and Silver Coins Surge as Top Sellers Amid 2025 Price Boom — WebProNews, 2025
- Amazon, Walmart and Costco Are Running Away With 46 Percent of Retail Growth — Yahoo Finance, 2025
- 6 Changes Costco Has Planned For 2026 — The Takeout, January 2026
- Costco's Kirkland Signature Products Brought In a Staggering Amount of Money in 2025 — Chowhound, 2026
- Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports January Sales Results — Costco Investor Relations, February 2026
- Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports December Sales Results — Costco Investor Relations, January 2026
- Costco Wholesale (COST) Earnings Date and Reports 2026 — MarketBeat, 2026
- Costco (COST) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — Motley Fool, December 2025
- Where To Buy The Costco Kirkland Signature Nike SB Dunks — Sneaker News, January 2026
- Costco Faces Class-Action Lawsuit Over Rotisserie Chicken — Fox Business, January 2026
- Costco Launches First Same-Day Websites in France and Spain with Instacart — Instacart Newsroom, January 2026
- Costco Stock Price Today — NASDAQ: COST — Morningstar, February 2026
- Costco Gold Bars Keep Selling Out. Are They a Smart Investment? — Kiplinger, 2026
- Costco Sues Over Trump Tariffs: What Could That Mean for Prices in 2026? — Kiplinger, 2026
- Costco to 'Pull Forward' Inventory Buys Amid Tariff Uncertainty — Supply Chain Dive, 2025